Service Plays Monday 11/02/09

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

11 *NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta
*NEW ORLEANS 44 - Atlanta 21

Lost amid the off season hoopla of acquiring All-Pro TE Tony Gonzalez was the fact that Atlanta saw its defense ravaged by free-agent defections, forcing a significant re-tooling project for the stop unit by HC Mike Smith. And last week’s one-sided loss at Dallas indicates the Falcs might no longer be able to camouflage those deficiencies, especially with injuries piling up (CB Brian Williams the latest casualty) and the DL lacking a true run-stuffer after stout rookie DT Peria Jerry’s season-ending knee injury and Grady Jackson’s FA departure. Those shortcomings will likely be exploited by Drew Brees and red-hot New Orleans bunch that maintained its perfect SU and spread mark (6-0!) after overcoming 21-point deficit at Miami. And even the upgraded Saints “D” sharing in the fun with 2 more TDs last week (that’s now 5 this season!).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Logical Approach

Atlanta + 10 over NEW ORLEANS (Monday)

Atlanta/New Orleans OVER 54

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Indian Cowboy

6 Unit Play. Take the Atlanta Falcons +10 over the New Orleans Saints (Monday Night Football @ 8pm est). These two teams are division rivals. You think Atlanta will not be fired up coming off the tough loss to Dallas? You better believe it. The Falcons struggled in the atmosphere at Dallas, but this is their chance to redeem themselves a bit against a rival in New Orleans and on top of that, if the Falcons can defeat this team, they will not be that far out for the division crown. Heck, the Falcons will be 5-2 and the Saints would be 6-1 pending a Falcons win. The Falcons know this and the Saints did show some weaknesses against the Dolphins. I like the Falcons to be an active dog here as I see this game likely going over. But, more importantly, I like the Falcons here, as a dog, coming off a loss, against a division rival and looking to shock the football world so to speak by winning this game outright. I think folks will be surprised at how well this team will be prepared for this game. Do not underestimate this Falcons team and of course, the Saints get to show off their stuff in front of the league on MNF, but in the same token, this does have plenty of holes on defense and the Falcons can run the heck out of the ball. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS coming off a straight up loss.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr. Bob

2 Star Selection
**NEW ORLEANS (-10.0) 33 Atlanta 17
05:30 PM Pacific, 02-Nov-09

05:30 PM Pacific, 02-Nov-09
New Orleans suffered a letdown last week and they still managed to come from behind and cover the spread in Miami. The Saints are now 6-0 ATS and I see no reason why that streak will end at home on Monday Night Football. The Saints' offense is averaging 40 points per game and the only two games in which they did not score 45 points or more were against the Jets and Bills, the two best pass defenses that the Saints have faced. Atlanta does not have a good pass defense (6.4 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp against an average team), so I don't see Drew Brees being stopped in this game. The Saints also have a good rushing attack and Atlanta is worse than average defending the run too (4.8 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average team).

The Falcons have a reputation for having a good offense, but that unit is actually barely better than average with 5.4 yards per play coming against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. New Orleans, meanwhile, has a good defense has allowed 4.9 yppl this season and rates at 0.5 yppl better than average.

My math model favors New Orleans by 13 points and the Saints apply to a very good 67-15-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 14-1 ATS when applying to favorites of more than 7 points. Atlanta's loss last week may have them fired up to play well tonight (they're 5-1 ATS after a loss), but winning teams that are coming off a loss are just 18-44-1 ATS as Monday night visitors, including 12-39-1 ATS if the home team has a win percentage of .400 or higher. New Orleans, meanwhile, is now a perfect 10-0 ATS the last two seasons as a favorite of more than 3 points, so they're not the type of team to let up. I'll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at-10 points or less.
I'll take New Orleans in a 2-Star Best Bet at-10 points or less.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

YOUCAPPER CAPPERS

PAPERBOY - ( 2-2 sunday )

Saints on Monday Night

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SIXTH SENSE
(NFL 26-19)

3% NEW ORLEANS -10.5
3% ATLANTA/NEW ORLEANS OVER 54


NEW ORLEANS -10 Atlanta 54.5
NEW ORLEANS 40 ATLANTA 24

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuley The Tout


Falcons +10.5 vs. Saints (Saints playing great, but double-digit faves over this division rival???, wait for peak)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Gold Sheet

NFL

KEY RELEASES ( 0-2 ON SUNDAY )

OVER THE TOTAL in the Atlanta-New Orleans game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RANDALL THE HANDLE

Falcons @ Saints
Line: New Orleans by 10

Divisional games have dominated the Monday Night sched this season. Network folk rely on them to be close and after defeating Saints and losing by just four in split last season, the Falcons are more than capable of meeting that requirement. TAKING: Atlanta +10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL DUNKEL

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2

Game 233-234: Atlanta at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 137.790; New Orleans 148.878
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 11; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 10; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-10); Under

 

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Pointwise Phone Service ( 2-2 sunday)

3* NEW ORLEANS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

dover picks

saints -9 1 unit

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL LONG SHEET

Week 8

Monday, November 2

ATLANTA (4 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (6 - 0) - 11/2/2009, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-39 ATS (-23.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

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Vegas Hotsheet
NO Saints -10

 

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Norm Hitzges

NFL

·New Orleans -10 vs Atlanta

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL WRITE-UP

Week 8 NFL games

Monday, November 2

Falcons (4-2) @ Saints (6-0)-- Home team won seven of last nine series games, with Atlanta losing last four visits to Superdome by 13-20-6-4 points, in what is NFL's most underrated rivalry. Saints have yet to win by less than a dozen points, scoring 36 second half points to blow past Miami 46-34 in game they trailed 24-3 in 2nd quarter. NO scored 11 TDs on 29 drives in last two tilts, getting 11 TDs, one FG in last 12 red zone drives. Falcons are 1-2 away from home, with both losses by 16 points (NE/Dallas); they scored 12 TDs on last 34 drives, with only one FG attempt- Dallas sacked Ryan four times, after he hadn't been sacked in his last four games. Four of six Saint games went over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL SHORT SHEET

Week 8

Monday, 11/2/2009

ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS, 8:35 PM ET ESPN
ATLANTA: 8-1 Under off an Over
NEW ORLEANS: 8-1 ATS in home games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL ADDITIONAL

Week 7

Monday, November 2

8:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

 

[Gatorbait37]

25 DIME RELEASE​

From The Freehold, New Jersey Wise Guys​

Monday Night Game of the Year - Part 2
New Orleans - Atlanta​

I just bought this from sportsadvisors.com. There was no write up, but this is paid for and confirmed by Gatorbait37. Good luck.
Steven Budin-CEO MONDAY'S PICK FREEHOLD, NEW JERSEY WISE GUYS

25 Dime Release

New Orleans